Despite news of the U.S. imposing countervailing duties on Vietnam, many experts and foreign businesses still consider Vietnam one of the strategic locations for expanding manufacturing systems.
Even though Vietnam is under significant pressure from the U.S.’s countervailing duties, experts believe that, in the long term, international businesses will still see Vietnam as a strategic hub for expanding their production bases.
“I believe in the government’s strategic negotiation skills”
— David Jackson, CEO of Avison Young Vietnam
Vietnam still possesses outstanding advantages such as affordable labor costs, a strategic location (sharing a border with China and access to the ASEAN market), and favorable incentives. Therefore, despite the initial instability, Vietnam’s strategic advantages will ensure its continued strength in global trade.
I believe Vietnam has a solid foundation to overcome trade challenges, thanks to the government’s diplomatic finesse and strategic negotiation capabilities.
Vietnam consistently balances relationships between Western and Eastern trade partners, maximizing the benefits of global trade agreements. One of its core strengths lies in smart diplomatic strategies.
Thus, to address uncertainties like the 46% U.S. countervailing duty, I believe Vietnam will continue to leverage its strong diplomatic network to negotiate favorable terms and exemptions for the country.
Diversifying trade partnerships is another comprehensive effort by the Vietnamese government. With 12 comprehensive strategic partners and 17 active Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), Vietnam has built a robust global trade network.
To reduce dependency on major economies like the U.S. and China, policymakers have strengthened ties with emerging markets and expanded participation in regional trade blocs.
Vietnam’s successful renegotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) after the U.S. withdrawal demonstrates its adaptability and ability to protect its trade interests.
Beyond trade agreements, Vietnam’s demographic advantage plays an important role. Its attractive consumer market draws major investment from multinational manufacturers such as IKEA, Samsung, and LEGO.
Policies aimed at enhancing workforce skills and infrastructure will further solidify Vietnam’s role in the global supply chain.
“The 46% tariff raises concern among the foreign business community”
— Dan Martin, International Business Advisor, Dezan Shira & Associates
The 46% tariff on Vietnamese imports into the U.S. has raised widespread concern among the business community.
If fully implemented, this policy will pose serious challenges to key export sectors, especially textiles, footwear, and furniture—industries that have long viewed the U.S. as a primary market.
Profit margins will shrink, orders may slow down, and the knock-on effects will impact employment, supply chains, and investment decisions.
Over the past decade, Vietnam has steadily expanded its trade architecture, signing FTAs with most of the world’s largest economies, including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and many ASEAN partners. In fact, the U.S. is one of the few major markets without an FTA with Vietnam, yet bilateral trade has continued to grow. This shows Vietnam’s wide-ranging appeal.
At the same time, the situation remains fluid. The proposed implementation date of April 9, 2025, is only a projection. Past experience with U.S. tariff initiatives—under both current and previous administrations—shows that these proposals are often delayed, revised, or even canceled altogether.
Many in the business and policy communities do not view the announcement as a final position, but rather a strategic opening move to bring key issues to the negotiation table.
In recent months, the Vietnamese government has taken concrete steps aligned with U.S. interests—from reducing tariffs on American goods to opening up sectors like satellite services and liquefied natural gas. These are not mere reactions to the tariff proposal, but part of a long-term effort to strengthen bilateral relations.
In terms of manufacturing, there won’t be a mass exodus. Companies we’ve spoken with are not in Vietnam for short-term gains—they are here to build sustainable, long-term operations in Asia. For many businesses, Vietnam is a strategic center, supported by cost competitiveness, a large labor force, and hard-to-replicate supply chain connectivity. Some companies may reassess how they ship to the U.S., but most will adapt rather than leave.
“U.S. countervailing duties will impact Vietnam’s real estate market”
— Nguyễn Thị Bích Ngọc, CEO of Sen Vàng Real Estate
While the 46% countervailing duty figure is shocking to all parties, the greater danger lies in the psychological uncertainty it creates in Vietnam’s current market. This has been reflected in the recent performance of the VN-Index.
In the short term, this policy will significantly affect Vietnam’s industrial real estate market. However, in the long term, I believe it presents an opportunity for the market to grow even stronger.
The Vietnamese government and infrastructure businesses need to find more attractive solutions and offerings to appeal to FDI investors and encourage more domestic investment.
Rather than relying solely on international trade trends like “China +1,” Vietnam should leverage its competitive advantages—strategic location, a highly skilled labor force, reasonable labor costs, and political stability—to attract investment in the coming phase. These are undeniable strengths Vietnam currently holds.
This is also the time for Vietnam to reshape and plan its priority sectors and key industries. Active participation in bilateral and multilateral agreements will open new opportunities, enhancing Vietnam’s regional and global stature. We need to take advantage of current challenges to transform and develop sustainably in the future.
“Investors may pause new investment decisions”
— Marc Townsend, Senior Advisor, Arcadia Consulting
I think it’s still too early to predict the long-term impacts on Vietnam, but this is definitely a wake-up call for the Vietnamese government and the real estate market in general—especially the young industrial sector, which is almost certainly going to stall, and foreign investors may temporarily pause new investment considerations until things become clearer after negotiations.
The real estate market as a whole is recovering well after years of low supply in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi. However, there is still a large inventory of unsold resort real estate in coastal cities like Da Nang, Phan Thiet, Nha Trang, and Phu Quoc.
Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign is in full swing, consumer confidence remains low, and interest rates are high. However, 2025 has started off positively, with new government policies and laws related to the real estate sector and improvements in infrastructure.
The return of President Donald Trump’s administration in the White House and the ongoing expansion of manufacturing bases have prompted the government to forecast GDP growth at 8%. This is an ambitious target, but with Vietnam’s strong diplomatic skills—and let’s face it, the whole world is wearing Made in Vietnam sneakers—it’s certainly not impossible.
Source: Bích Ngọc – baodautu.vn